BRUSSELS — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is threatening to block all European Union aid for Ukraine, as well as the country’s future accession to the bloc, unless EU leaders agree to review their entire strategy of support for Kyiv, according to a letter seen by POLITICO.

In the letter, addressed to European Council chief Charles Michel, the Hungarian leader says that no decision on funding for Ukraine, the opening of accession talks to the EU, or further sanctions against Russia can be taken until this “strategic discussion” happens when leaders gather in Brussels in mid-December.

“The European Council should take stock of the implementation and effectiveness of our current policies towards Ukraine including various assistance programs,” Orban writes in the letter, which is undated but bears the stamp of his office.

He also asks why Europe should continue to support Ukraine at a time when the United States, which has provided the bulk of military aid for Kyiv, may not be able to continue funding due to partisan deadlock over future support.

“The European Council must have a frank and open discussion on the feasibility of the EU’s strategic objectives in Ukraine,” the letter states.

“Do we still regard these objectives realistically attainable? Is this strategy sustainable without robust support from the United States? Can we take continuing support from the United States for granted? How do we conceive the security architecture of Europe after the war,” it goes on.

It adds that “the European Council is not in a position to make key decisions on the proposed security guarantees or additional financial support for Ukraine, endorse further strengthening of the EU sanctions regime or agree on the future of the enlargement process unless a consensus on our future strategy towards Ukraine is found.”

Working around Hungary

Orbán’s letter raises the stakes in a long-running standoff between Budapest and Brussels, which is holding back €13 billion in EU funds for Hungary over concerns that the country is falling afoul of the EU’s standards on rule-of-law.

Without saying so directly, the letter suggests that Budapest could use its veto power to block the disbursement of a planned €50 billion in aid for Ukraine — money that’s needed to fund the Ukrainian government while its armed forces fight back against a full-scale Russian invasion.

In addition to the €50 billion, Orban is threatening to block €500 million in planned military aid for Ukraine, as well as the opening of formal negotiations for Kyiv to join the 27-member union, which leaders were hoping to approve at the next gathering of the European Council on December 14 and 15.

According to one EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to discuss confidential deliberations, Orbán has “booby-trapped” the entire EU decision-making process on Ukraine as part of a strategy to raise pressure on the European Commission to release the €13 billion to Hungary.

The diplomat went on to say that while on other occasions, Budapest has abstained on key votes and allowed the EU to slap sanctions on Russia, on this occasion, “I don’t see that happening.”

“It’s not a matter of neutrality for Hungary,” said the envoy. “It’s about leverage.”

Orbán’s threat comes at a particularly sensitive time for Ukraine, as Kyiv’s armed forces struggle to make gains against invading Russian troops and just after United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has warned that the “window is closing” on U.S. aid for Ukraine.

With Hungary ramping up tensions and threatening to hijack the December summit of EU leaders, some countries are already contemplating ways to work around Budapest and keep aid flowing to Kyiv.

One such workaround could see EU countries sending financial aid to Ukraine via bilateral arrangements rather than via EU structures such as the European Peace Facility, which coordinates EU military aid for Kyiv — effectively freezing out Budapest.

But that approach wouldn’t work when it comes to opening formal negotiations for Kyiv to join the EU, as Hungary would have to be part of that process. As a result, and to preserve EU unity, the same diplomat said it wasn’t a good idea to freeze out Hungary quite yet.

“I understand where they are coming from,” the diplomat said with regard to those calling for a Hungary workaround on military aid. “But doing that [circumventing the EPF] would basically undermine the one European mechanism we have for support to Ukraine.”

“It’s the one thing we can show where the EU as a bloc is supporting Ukraine, which shows unity to Russia and also to the United States,” the diplomat continued.

In the event of a Hungarian veto, another option for the EU is simply to let the clock keep running and push key decisions on Ukraine policy to early next year, as Kyiv won’t reach a budget cliff-edge until March.

By deferring a decision on unfreezing EU funds for Budapest, the European Commission could turn the tables by tightening the financial screws on Budapest and forcing compliance on Ukraine.

“It’s arm-wrestling,” added the diplomat, who said the European Commission had so far shown great skill in defusing potential explosions with Budapest.

Source : Politico

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Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umierov has signed an order approving the Military Personnel Policy Concept through to 2028, which focuses on meeting the human resources needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Quote: “The document defines a strategic vision for developing military personnel policy in defence over the next five years, both during martial law and peacetime.

The main emphasis of the concept is to ensure that the needs of the AFU in personnel are met during a full-scale war, integration into the Euro-Atlantic security space, and interoperability of the AFU with the armed forces of NATO member states.”

Details: The Ukrainian Defence Ministry expects the following effects:

The AFU will switch to contract military service. Conscript military service will be replaced by intensive military training for citizens of draft age;

Ukraine will have an effective system of recruiting professional and motivated personnel for the AFU;

A human-centred approach to career management of military personnel, taking into account their education;

Professional development, and gender equality. Equal opportunities for men and women in the AFU;

Improved electronic military registration system;

Automated and digitalised personnel management processes;

Expanded cooperation between Ukrainian higher education institutions and those of NATO and EU member states;

An effective and transparent system of financial support for servicemen and women and provision of housing;

Improved psychological support;

A new style of relations between commanders and subordinates;

Proper conditions for transitioning from military career to civilian life for service members subject to discharge from military service.

Source : Yahoo

The post “Recruitment Instead of Conscription”: Ukraine’s Defence Minister Approves New Military Staffing Policy Concept appeared first on Policy Print.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine needs to get used to the fact that the country’s policies are bringing it closer to the moment when the Ukrainian flag will be hoisted alongside the flags of other EU member states in Brussels.

Quote: “Ukraine has walked a very long path – from a point where many didn’t believe in the possibility of our alignment with the European Union during a full-scale war, to achieving the status of a candidate country at record speed and fulfilling the necessary prerequisites for opening negotiations.

This is proof, time and time again, that Ukraine can accomplish significant achievements when we work in a united and confident manner, in the interests of our independence and of all Ukrainians…

All of us in Ukraine now need to get used to the fact that our domestic policy is a policy of European integration, and that is what is bringing us closer to the moment when the Ukrainian flag will be flying in Brussels alongside the flags of all the other EU member states.”

Details: Zelenskyy added that his team is doing everything possible to be ready for full accession to the European Union and to adapt all institutions and standards to European rules.

Source : Yahoo

The post Zelenskyy: Our Policies Bring Us Closer to Moment When Ukrainian Flag Will Be Raised in Brussels appeared first on Policy Print.

The assessment published by Finland’s Ministry of the Interior covers 21 nationally significant threat scenarios and disruptions, ranging from hybrid influence activities and armed conflicts to natural disasters, industrial accidents and climate phenomena.

The previous risk assessment was published in 2018.

The assessment anticipates sudden incidents targeted at Finland that have an impact on the vital functions of society and require the authorities to adopt exceptional measures or even request help from other countries.

According to the report, climate change, the digitalization of societies, hybrid influence activities and networked value and production chains are further examples of development trends and phenomena in the operating environment of threats and disruptions.

There are two new threats compared with the previous report: multiple simultaneous large wildfires and an extremely powerful space storm, national broadcaster Yle said.

There is also a high probability of a new pandemic, the report noted. However, it is impossible to estimate the magnitude of the risk and the severity of the pandemic in advance, it said.

The post Russia-Ukraine Conflict Destabilizes Finland’s Foreign Policy Position appeared first on Policy Print.

“The total inadequacy of decisions and actions of the current Kyiv regime, whose politicians are notorious for their carelessness, inability to negotiate, and blatant Russophobia, is obvious. And, although Russia does not reject the option for negotiations and a political resolution of the conflict, we are not going to talk under the preconditions put forth by the Kyiv authorities. Everything now depends exclusively on the readiness of Kyiv and its Western puppeteers for a true political and diplomatic resolution of the crisis,” the senior diplomat told TASS.

Galuzin also called the “so-called peace initiatives” of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky “that, if implemented, he allegedly is ready for a truce with Russia under” totally unacceptable.

“The Ukrainian leader’s proposal to make a ‘gesture of goodwill’ and withdraw Russian forces from Ukrainian territory for Christmas is also absurd. It is also unclear how all these slogans and calls correspond with Zelensky’s decree, signed on September 30, about the ‘impossibility’ of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin,” the Deputy Foreign Minister added.

The post Political Settlement in Ukraine Possible, but Not on Kiev’s Terms — Russia appeared first on Policy Print.

“Russia isn’t at the negotiation table at all. And so our goal right now is just to reinforce Ukraine’s position on the ground through military aid, intelligence sharing and financial support,” said Mélanie Joly. “Because when we do that, we’re actually reinforcing their position at the negotiation table. There will be a diplomatic solution eventually. That’s been the case in every single conflict. But we’re not there yet.”

Despite reports that western allies are growing wary of continued and costly arms shipment – and concerned at the speed with which Ukraine is using up its ammunition – Joly said there was “strong support for Ukraine” ahead of the Nato summit.

She pointed to Canada’s pledge of C$500m (£310m) in new military aid to Ukraine, announced at the G20 summit in Jakarta.

Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, particularly power plants, had only increased support from allies, Joly said.

“We need to make sure that Ukrainians are able to get through this difficult winter,” she said, adding that energy ministers from Nato countries were looking for solutions to the looming energy crisis.

Russia has pounded energy facilities around Kyiv with missile strikes, resulting in power outages and breaks in water supplies.

The post Canadian MFA: We Have Not Reached Diplomatic Solution Stage in Ukraine Conflict appeared first on Policy Print.

The president of Ukraine also noted the beginning of the confiscation of Russian assets and called for tougher sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation.

In addition, the politicians agreed on positions on the eve of the NATO summit and other international events.

The NATO summit will be held in Vilnius (Lithuania) on July 11-12.

Zelenskyy was invited to take part in the summit.

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