TikTok is undertaking a rapid expansion of its U.S. office footprint as it toughens its return to office mandate on workers.

The Chinese-owned social media giant is shopping for what could be more than 600K SF in San Jose, Seattle and Nashville, rapidly expanding an office footprint that now encompasses space in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Austin.

TikTok is using a customized app to monitor its tougher return-to-office policy, which requires its U.S. workforce of 7,000 to be in the physical office at least three days a week, with an unspecified number of workers required to come in five days a week.

The app, which TikTok calls My RTO, tracks badge swipes to determine if employees are fulfilling the RTO mandate.

TikTok is in talks to occupy 100K SF of the newly built 16-story Moore Building on Music Row in Nashville. Los Angeles-based TikTok has been leasing three floors encompassing about 50K SF at One Nashville, anchoring a WeWork space, according to a report in CoStar.

TikTok parent ByteDance is negotiating a sublease agreement that will expand its footprint at the former Roku complex in San Jose from 660K SF to more than 1M SF, the report said.

ByteDance currently subleases two buildings on Coleman Avenue that Roku decided to vacate in its Coleman Highline portfolio last year. Roku is still seeking a tenant for two other buildings at the Coleman complex.

TikTok also is finalizing plans to double its space at the Lincoln Square North Tower in Bellevue, WA, where it currently leases about 132K SF, taking space that was offloaded by Microsoft last year. TikTok occupies 100K SF in the Key Center, about a block away from the Lincoln Square tower, the report said.

TikTok won’t have any trouble locating available tech space in West Coast locations as many opportunities exist in space listed for sublease by tech companies that have been downsizing their footprints.

Analysts are predicting that TikTok’s U.S. revenue will increase by more than 25% in 2024 to $11B, an amount equal to 3.5% of the total digital ad spend in the country.

Source: Globest

The post TikTok Rapidly Grows Office Footprint, Toughens RTO Policy appeared first on Policy Print.

Assessing tail risks to the euro area economy

In Chavleishvili, Kremer and Lund-Thomsen (2023), we develop a novel approach to gauge the potential short- to medium-term costs and benefits of alternative policy actions when monetary policy faces trade-offs between financial and macroeconomic stability. The structural quantile vector autoregressive (QVAR) model – introduced by Chavleishvili and Manganelli (2023) – provides a flexible way of estimating the dynamic interactions between our main variables of interest: real GDP growth, inflation, short-term interest rates and financial stability conditions.^[2] The “flexible” attribute refers to the fact that the estimated interactions can be weaker or stronger in the centre and in the tails of the “joint probability distributions” of the model variables. Financial stability conditions are captured by two summary indicators measuring financial imbalances and system-wide financial stress, respectively. Using quantile regression allows us to uncover non-linearities in the dynamics of the model variables like in the seminal “growth-at-risk” paper by Adrian et al. (2019), which documents a much stronger impact of financial distress on the left tail of the growth distribution. By considering the entire probability distribution of our variables of interest, we can evaluate policy options not just in terms of their most likely outcomes, but also in terms of the tail risks associated with particularly undesirable states such as systemic crises. The quantification of tail risks thus lends itself to a risk management perspective on financial stability considerations in monetary policy (see Kilian and Manganelli, 2008), a perspective that focuses on the balance of upside and downside risks to inflation and economic activity rather than on the mean forecasts of both variables.

To operationalise financial stability, our model includes two measures widely used in ECB analysis. The first one is the Systemic Risk Indicator (SRI), which measures the financial cycle and, by extension, system-wide financial imbalances (see Lang et al., 2019). The second is the Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS), which quantifies systemic stress in the financial system (see Holló et al., 2012, and Chavleishvili and Kremer, 2023). Conceptually, one may think of the former as systemic risk ex ante, i.e. the risk of a future financial crisis, and of the latter as systemic risk ex post, i.e. materialised systemic risk. A typical financial boom-bust cycle would then see an elevated level of the SRI followed by a steep rise in the CISS as the bubble bursts and the system deleverages, with the Great Financial Crisis being a prominent example. The risk of such a boom-bust pattern poses an intertemporal financial stability trade-off for monetary policy: it can try to curb the financial boom by keeping interest rates higher than they would otherwise be, at the cost of weaker economic growth over the short run and at the benefit of a financial crisis being less likely and less severe over the medium term. In this article, however, we focus on another: the intratemporal financial stability trade-off for monetary policy, in which monetary policy itself may trigger more immediate financial instability.

The intratemporal financial stability trade-off in 2022

The circumstances prevailing in 2022 in the euro area and in many other places in the world, marked a stark turning point in the monetary policy stance. At the time, surging inflation called for a sharp tightening of monetary policy, even though economic growth was slowing after the post-pandemic rebound and financial stress was increasing on the back of the Russian aggression in Ukraine. In addition, the financial system at the time was vulnerable to a policy reversal because after a decade of accommodative monetary policy, the yield curve was flat and risk premia were at historically low levels, implying elevated risks to the profitability of banks and other financial intermediaries from a sharp rise in short-term interest rates.

To quantify the intratemporal financial stability trade-off in the euro area, we forecast the full distribution of our model variables over a period of four years, starting with the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022). In the baseline scenario, we fix the path of interest rates to the expected short-term market rates from the September 2022 Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) conducted by the ECB. In the baseline, we also require the mean forecast of real GDP growth, HICP inflation and commodity prices between Q4 2022 and Q4 2024 to reflect the ECB’s publicly available macroeconomic projections. This approach allows us to replicate the context in which policymakers were deciding on the path forward at the time while still considering macro-financial tail risks.

In addition to the baseline scenario, we also consider two alternative policy scenarios with different paths of short-term interest rates. The first one is “front-loading”, whereby policy rates are hiked more quickly. This helps prevent inflation from becoming entrenched, but it can also hurt systemically relevant banks and other financial intermediaries that have become particularly vulnerable to interest rate risk. The March 2023 banking turmoil in the United States and elsewhere provides a clear example of how monetary tightening may induce, or expose, financial fragility (see, e.g., Jiang et al., 2023, and Acharya et al., 2023). The second scenario considers a gradual monetary tightening. This may alleviate strains on financial stability, but at the cost of making high inflation more persistent, thereby creating the risk of long-term inflation expectations becoming de-anchored from the ECB’s 2% target. All three interest rate paths are illustrated in Chart 1.

Chart 1

Counterfactual paths for short-term interest rates in the euro area

Chart 2 plots the projected paths of the mean as well as the 10^th and 90^th percentiles of the forecast density of real GDP growth and the CISS using the three interest rate paths above. As previously noted, in the case of real GDP growth, the dotted line is restricted to meet the ECB’s growth projections at the time. The 10^th and the 90^th conditional percentiles represent the downside and the upside tail risks around these mean projections, respectively.^[3] Looking at the chart, we see that downside risks to real GDP growth (blue lines, left chart), as well as upside risks to systemic stress (red lines, right chart) are amplified by the interest rate front-loading in the short term compared to the baseline, and that the effects are larger compared to the respective opposite tails. Tightening monetary policy above market expectations increases the probability of realising a high level of systemic stress, in turn feeding into downside risks to growth. In contrast, a more gradual tightening has the opposite effects.

Chart 2

Forecast distributions of euro area real GDP (left) growth and the CISS (right) in the three policy scenarios

Overall, when comparing the short- to medium-term costs and benefits of the scenarios vis-à-vis the baseline forecast, the results generally do not support a more aggressive tightening path than what was expected by market participants in the autumn of 2022. The elevated downside risks to growth may outweigh the only modest gains in lower predicted inflation. That said, a policymaker who is particularly concerned about inflation expectations becoming de-anchored from target inflation may still be inclined to favour tighter policy. On the other hand, if policymakers were more concerned about the risk of causing severe financial distress by front-loading policy, the scenario could be modified to resemble, for example, the so-called “taper tantrum”, an episode of severe financial stress that occurred in 2013 when the Federal Reserve hinted at tapering its bond-buying programme.

Another consideration is that we have modelled monetary policy rather simplistically, with short-term rates being the only instrument. Today, monetary policymakers have several tools available, some of which can be used to separately target price and financial stability concerns, potentially mitigating the intratemporal financial stability trade-off. Still, a policymaker may prefer to avoid sparking financial stress to begin with, even if it can be contained with the right combination of tools.

Monetary policy from a risk manager’s perspective

In this article, we sketched a novel empirical approach to quantify the macroeconomic costs and benefits of monetary policies which take financial stability considerations explicitly into account. The approach has the distinct advantage that financial stability considerations are not introduced ad hoc or as pure “side effects” of monetary policy. In contrast, financial stability trade-offs enter the policy calculus through their direct effects on future inflation and economic activity. Our approach allows monetary policymakers to adopt a risk management perspective when confronted with elevated macroeconomic tails risks associated with certain risks to financial stability.

Source: ECB Europa

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The consequences of this inertia are now evident in abundance. Scotland’s GDP growth rate has lagged significantly behind the rest of the UK over the last decade – a not inconsiderable achievement given recent circumstances – while productivity remains stubbornly low, below the national average. Meanwhile, Scotland also faces significant structural challenges, not least its rapidly ageing population. In short, without significant and sustained economic growth, Scotland and its public services are on course to fall into an ever darker, ever deeper, black hole.  

Across Scotland, there is a cohort of frustrated taxpayers and bemused business leaders who are growing increasingly tired of paying more and more and getting less and less.

Despite increasingly urgent and apocalyptic warnings from business and industry about this looming crisis, Scotland’s politicians remain reluctant to act (if you are kind) – or incapable of acting (if you are not). Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s ailing First Minister, is likely to announce plans to increase Scotland’s already significant income tax rates further, but in this instance at least he is not the only culpable party. 

For years it has been perfectly common – indeed, almost accepted – that party political manifestos for Scottish parliament elections need not be costed. This not only betrays the lack of seriousness among the Scottish political class when it comes to economic policy, but also its distinct lack of vision. After all, if you are not going to bother to cost your manifesto, there is no reason why you should not promise to, quite literally, pave the streets with gold. Instead, an absence of ambition and imagination leaves Scotland with bizarre policy pledges about the banning of the use of wild animals in travelling circuses or the creation of a fleet of mobile abattoirs – unrelated proposals, I should add.

In fairness to the Scottish Conservative party, they are now trying to right this considerable collective wrong. In a speech in Edinburgh on Tuesday, opposition leader Douglas Ross outlined his plan to ‘grasp the thistle’ and get economic growth back on the agenda in Scotland. 

This makes good political sense for the Scottish Tory leader given his party’s diminished popularity among voters. A poll by Survation this week showed a majority of people in Scotland believe they do not get value for money from public services, despite the highest tax burden in the UK. A similar number, logically if unsurprisingly, agreed that the SNP-Green government’s policies are actively making Scotland less competitive and, by implication, a less attractive place to do business.  

With the threat of Scottish independence receding in voters’ minds – at least for now – it is shrewd of Ross to fill a void that has emerged not just in the last few years, but since the dawn of devolution itself. Across Scotland, there is a cohort of frustrated taxpayers and bemused business leaders who are growing increasingly tired of paying more and more and getting less and less.  

This is obviously natural territory for the Tories to occupy, but it is also an issue that seemingly transcends the often deeply entrenched party-political loyalties found in Scotland. One of the reasons why Kate Forbes’ eye-catching but ultimately ill-fated campaign to become SNP leader garnered so much attention was her evident desire to refocus the Scottish parliament on economic rather than social policy. The necessity of her argument, and the forcefulness with which it was articulated, won her a considerable number of admirers in Unionist parties as well as the SNP.  

Of course, while he talks a good game, Ross’ plans as they stand are light on detail while he also – understandably if absurdly – ignores the issues in Scotland’s economy created by Brexit. But we can live in hope that the detail and delivery will come later. For now, at least, Ross deserves credit for talking about a vital subject that has otherwise been ignored for far too long in Scottish politics.  

Source: The Spectator

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Hurricane Idalia is quickly approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast and many residents are preparing for strong winds and plenty of rain. 

On Aug. 29, TODAY’s Al Roker shared the latest updates on the storm, which has officially strengthened into a hurricane. Idalia is currently 85 miles north of the western tip of Cuba with 75 mph winds.

Al said Idalia is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane by the time it makes landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday morning. 13 million Floridians are currently under hurricane warning from Tallahassee to Sarasota, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings and watches are also in effect.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4 hurricane, is heading toward Bermuda. While Franklin is expected to pass the northwest of Bermuda, a tropical storm watch is in still in effect, according to a public advisory by the National Hurricane Center Aug. 29. The notice also states that “life-threatening surf and rip currents” are already affecting Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States.

The National Hurricane Center described Idalia as a “life-threatening storm surge” in an advisory on Aug. 29. 

Many businesses throughout Florida are also preparing for the storm, including Walt Disney World Resort.

Walt Disney World Resort released a statement Monday night on its weather updates page, which includes the latest resort information in the event of a tropical storm, hurricane or other severe weather. 

“Walt Disney World Resort is currently operating under normal conditions,” the statement reads. “We are closely monitoring the path of the projected weather as we continue to prioritize the safety of our Guests and Cast Members.”

The amusement park has not announced plans to close its gates, but the resort does have a hurricane policy in place that will protect its local residents.

In another update, Walt Disney World Communications said that the resort is prepared to “serve as a staging area for storm-related recovery efforts for the state of Florida.”

Read on to learn how Walt Disney World Resort handles refunds, rescheduling and fees in the event of a hurricane.  

Does Disney World issue refunds in the event of a hurricane?

Typically, Disney World Resort makes exceptions to its standard policy and issues refunds for hurricanes. 

If the National Hurricane Center issues a warning for the Orlando area or a visitor’s place of residence within seven days of their “scheduled arrival date,” then they can cancel or reschedule their trip with no penalty.

“At this time, change and cancellation fees imposed by Disney will be waived for check-in dates of August 28, 2023 through September 4, 2023,” WDW Communications says. “Guests currently staying at our Disney Resort hotels whose travel plans have been impacted by the storm may receive a discounted rate to extend their stay through the evening of August 31, if needed, by visiting the front desk.”

“Florida residents evacuating from the storm and first responders assisting in storm-related recovery efforts may also receive 50% off Disney Resort hotel stays on the evenings of August 29-31, 2023,” the company adds. “For evacuees, please call 407-W-DISNEY for details. For first responders, please call 407-828-3200 (Option 3).”

WDW Communications noted that this only applies to new bookings and is based on availability.

How to reschedule a trip?

If visitors want to reschedule an upcoming trip within seven days of a hurricane warning, they can call or go online to change their travel dates. Disneys says it cannot guarantee that the customers will be able to secure similar accommodations for the new trip. 

Everything paid for, including rooms, theme park tickets and other services, will be credited toward the new reservations. 

“Any discounts or special offers applicable to your original confirmed vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation travel dates,” the policy says. “You are responsible for applicable package pricing for the new vacation dates.”

The company notes that this policy does not apply to some special events and dining experiences. 

Will customers be responsible for cancellation fees? 

If customers are canceling or rescheduling a trip within seven days of a hurricane warning, then they can do so without paying for any fees. However, this policy only applies to visitors who booked their reservations through Disney.

Any customer who made plans using a third-party will have to follow that supplier’s refund policies. 

Does Disney World close for hurricanes?

It is very rare for Disney World to entirely close for a storm. Typically, the park stays open while certain rides or attractions will close as the weather requires.

The most recent time the park entirely closed was for Hurricane Irma in September 2019.

Hurricane Irma was only the fifth time the park has been closed since it opened in 1971. It is typically open every day of the year.

NBC News has previously reported that each previous time Disney World was closed was also for an impeding hurricane — Floyd in 1999, Frances in 2004, and Jeanne in 2004.

Source: Today

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In recent months, anti-trade activists and a handful of members of Congress have ratcheted up their use of a familiar tactic: When you can’t win an argument, a good old ad hominem attack will at least feel good.

Their charge is that the business community dominates the official trade advisory committee system. Some questions arise: What are these committees, what is their objective, and are these charges true?

The advisory committee system “was created to ensure that U.S. trade policy and trade negotiating objectives adequately reflect U.S. public and private sector interests,” according to USTR. Congress created them in the Trade Act of 1974, which mandates that the president “shall seek … and take into account” advice from the private sector on trade negotiating objectives, the operation of trade agreements, and other international economic policy issues.

The system consists of 26 advisory committees, including the President’s Advisory Committee on Trade Policy and Negotiations (ACTPN); committees focusing on agriculture, labor, the environment, and Africa; and 15 sectoral or functional Industry Trade Advisory Committees. The Commerce and Agriculture Departments co-manage some of these with USTR.

The committees play an important role in keeping U.S. trade policy tethered to the expertise of individuals and enterprises directly engaged in trade. As USTR negotiates complex rules with real-world impact, sector-specific knowledge from industry specialists is essential.

For example, consider the arcane trade rules used to determine origin for a brassiere. It turns out that all U.S. free-trade agreements negotiated over the past 30 years (except the U.S.-Korea FTA) “include a special [rule of origin] for brassieres, a garment of complicated construction where the application of a yarn- or fabric-forward tariff shift rule to an essential character component is difficult if not impossible,” according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

This is a good example of the specialized knowledge useful to the work of the trade advisory committees. If trade rules for a piece of clothing can be this complex, imagine the case for high-tech products made using global supply chains, trade secrets and forced technology transfer, and “behind the border” barriers to trade that discriminate against U.S. companies and workers.

U.S. trade negotiators with USTR or the Commerce Department should be able to call on the expertise of people who actually know how to make stuff and have experience in international trade. It makes sense for these people to serve on these committees.

Do these business voices dominate the trade advisory committees, as charged? Hardly. Consider the ACTPN, the most senior committee. Its charter states that the committee “will be broadly representative of the key sectors and groups of the economy affected by trade.” This calls for strong business representation on the committee.

However, a glance at the ACTPN’s 14 members reveals that a small minority are drawn from business and agriculture, and most of its members are representatives of academia, organized labor, and NGOs. The charge that “big business” is calling the shots could hardly be more off base.

The Industry Trade Advisory Committees (ITACs) advise both USTR and the Commerce Department on sector-specific trade issues. They are required to incorporate “balanced industry representation” with respect to size and perspective. The ITACs open application process helps achieve this goal and draws in needed expertise. A glance at the membership of the 15 ITACs shows small and large companies, with different sectoral niches, participating together.

Good trade policy also requires effective interagency coordination and, perhaps most of all, congressional leadership. The Constitution gives Congress the authority to regulate foreign commerce and to levy tariffs, though a partnership with the executive branch—which has the authority to negotiate with foreign governments—is imperative. Executive-legislative engagement on trade mustn’t be limited to ad hoc engagement with select groups of members of Congress from a single party.

In sum, ensuring that individuals with expertise in making goods, producing food, and providing services—and trading them internationally—is essential to good trade policy. It makes a world of sense for the U.S. business and agriculture community to have a strong voice on the U.S. trade advisory committees. It’s that simple.

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

The post The Voice of Business: Stakeholder Consultation and U.S. Trade Policy appeared first on Policy Print.

The bank’s governing council decided to increase the policy rate again, reflecting its view that monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2 percent target, the central bank said in a press release.

The bank conducted eight consecutive interest rate hikes since March 2022, adding 425 basis points in total to tackle inflation. However, it maintained the policy rate at 4.5 percent in March and April this year.

According to the bank, consumer price index (CPI) inflation ticked up in April to 4.4 percent, the first increase in 10 months, with prices for a broad range of goods and services coming in higher than expected. Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs. Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labour market.

The bank continued to expect CPI inflation to ease to around 3 percent in the summer, as lower energy prices feed through and last year’s large price gains fall out of the yearly data.

However, with three-month measures of core inflation running in the range from 3.5 percent to 4 percent for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2 percent target, the bank said.

The governing council will in particular be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the inflation target before announcing the rate target next month, the bank said.

The bank added it is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening to complement its restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing its balance sheet. 

The post Bank of Canada Raises Policy Rate by 25 Basis Points appeared first on Policy Print.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average added 289.35 points, or 0.90 percent, from Monday to close the day at 32,506.78, marking its highest closing level since July 19, 1990.

The broader Topix index, meanwhile, gained 16.49 points, or 0.74 percent, to finish at 2,236.28, to book its highest finish since Aug. 1, 1990.

Dealers said that data released Tuesday showing that along with household spending in Japan dropping 4.4 percent in April from a year earlier, wages were also on a downtrend.

They highlighted data showing wages slumped 3.0 percent in April, extending declines for the 13th consecutive month and noted that wages remain behind price rises for commodities and energy prices, with inflation forcing households to make some significant cuts in spending, like outlays for education.

As a result of the downbeat data, market strategists said the likelihood remained that the Bank of Japan would stay pat on its ultra-easy monetary policy, which bolstered buying confidence, despite the BOJ’s stance being in stark contrast to other major global central banks, which have tightened policies to combat oppressive inflation.

Brokers here also pointed to a growing view the U.S. Federal Reserve may forego a rate hike at the conclusion of its next policy-setting meeting, as some data, such as employment figures, have supported the view the U.S. economy may be improving.

But concerns remained, they said, as recent U.S. economic data has been choppy, with the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing data for May missing median market expectations, for example.

“A big reason why Japanese stocks are sought by global investors is because the improving situation in the United States has reduced downside risks in the world’s largest economy,” Koichi Fujishiro, a senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, was quoted as saying.

Heavily weighted components reversed earlier losses and helped prop up the broader market, with Uniqlo clothing chain operator Fast Retailing gaining 1.7 percent.

Trading company Mitsui & Co. climbed 3.9 percent and was another notable winner, while Seven & i Holdings jumped 2.6 percent, following news it will revamp its delivery service to its stores to make it more efficient and profitable.

Banking shares lost ground, however, on reports regulators in the U.S. may increase capital requirements for lenders, in the wake of a number of U.S. bank failures.

Mizuho Financial Group lost 0.5 percent, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group dropped 0.6 percent. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, meanwhile, ended 0.7 percent lower.

By the close of play, wholesale trade, mining and iron and steel-linked issues comprised those that gained the most.

The turnover on the Prime Market on the second trading day of the week came to 3,450.13 billion yen (24.78 billion U.S. dollars). 

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The most active gold contract for August delivery fell 23.10 U.S. dollars, or 1.17 percent, to close at 1,958.40 dollars per ounce.

Gold remained trapped in a tight trading range of about 2 percent from the lower to higher end in the past week, as investors waited for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate direction.

In short term, gold price may remain locked in the range from 1,950 dollars to 2,000 dollars, market analysts hold.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported Wednesday that U.S. trade deficit jumped 23 percent in April to a six-month high of 74.6 billion U.S. dollars, further dampening gold.

Silver for July delivery fell 14.10 cents, or 0.60 percent, to close at 23.529 dollars per ounce. Platinum for July delivery fell 14.10 dollars, or 1.36 percent, to close at 1,024.60 dollars per ounce.

The post Gold Falls Ahead of Fed’s Policy Meeting appeared first on Policy Print.

“I don’t agree at all. Not at all. I don’t know how or why he came to that conclusion,” Vieira said in response to a question from the press at the presidential residence Alvorada Palace, where Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday.

Speaking to journalists on Saturday, Lula said that the West is encouraging war by giving arms to Ukraine. “The United States needs to stop encouraging war and start talking about peace,” he said. 

The post Brazil Rejects U.S. Criticism of Its Foreign Policy appeared first on Policy Print.

According to him, the European Union is looking for ways to transfer the frozen funds to Ukraine.

On February 15, the European Union announced the creation of a working group to confiscate frozen Russian assets to support the reconstruction of Ukraine. Foreign assets of the Central Bank in the amount of $300 billion have been frozen since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.

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